REGULAR GUY DERBY 151 SELECTIONS

What is crystal clear about this year’s Derby is that we don’t know what we don’t know. At this stage of their career, these are like high school athletes, still growing and developing their skills. Some will go on to be Division 1 players and some may have already have peaked as freshmen. We probably all know a few.

Mystik Dan and Brian Hernandez take a bow to the crowd after their 2024 Kentucky Derby. Who will take that walk this year?

Now take these growing boys and put them in unfamiliar surroundings (for most) in front of 200,000 high octane fans, ask them to go a distance they have never tried, on a predicted sloppy track and stuff them in a 20-horse gate. The race could be over with one misstep. Even with a smooth start they will be asked to jockey for position as they enter the turn with 19 others jockeying for position. After what is usually an eventful first mile, they will be hit with what many riders have described as, “The Wall of Sound” – you can’t prepare a horse for that.

History is made in that last quarter of a mile, the front runners get leg weary and the second wave are all shopping for that sweet spot in the final furlong. Most strong closers will have to take the overland route, while books are written about the one’s that magically appeared in the Derby’s final yards, thanks to the artful dodger in the multi-colored silks – Mine that Bird and Rich Strike come to mind.

Now, with my excuses in place, here are my Derby 151 selections. I won’t be there in person this year. Got to witness Kentucky Derby #100 and 150 and plenty along the way – “Fun’s fun, but you can’t laugh all the time!” Besides, where I’ll be viewing the race has no long lines for betting, brats, beer or the bathroom.

My approach to betting this year’s Derby is that there are a legitimate amount of runners who have had their success on the lead and will compete to do so early in the race. You’ll hear, “I’m not going to get involved in some crazy speed duel…,” from a half-dozen riders who will be vying for the lead. Perhaps it’s the roar of the infield crowd or the adrenaline release from vending off early pressure, but Hall of Fame jockeys who think they are cruising at a moderate clip, will be setting early fractions better suited to a shorter race. It happens almost every year and I’m banking on it as I put pen to picks.

In a Rich Strike, last minute scenario, the ever-improving Baeza draws into the race and brings along the hottest jockey in the country – Flavian Prat (#4 Rodriguez was scratched). Pre-race at 12 to 1, Baeza led Derby favorite Journalism in the final 16th of the Grade1 Santa Anita Derby, falling ¾ lengths short. The biggest foe for this $1.2 million purchase may be Baeza’s #20 post position. His best two races came when he attended the pace, but it will be hard to get around the speedy Owen Almighty in post 19.

I’m still in the Journalism camp. You have to watch the Santa Anita Derby to appreciate that narrow winning margin. In a small field, he was immediately shuffled back on the rail after the start. From that point, Journalism had five riders, as most in the race were watching what Umberto Rispoli was going to do as they trapped him in his inside position and gave him a little bump in the process. Rispoli pulled Journalism to a brief escape route, and on cue, the son of Curlin seized the opportunity with vigor. Another reason I like him is an old handicapping angle – he’s the fastest horse in the race!

Now the case for Sovereignty (not the Ohio stallion who stood at Windy Knoll Farm in the ‘80’s), winner of the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth, and a gaining 2nd in the Grade 1 Florida Derby with a replacement jockey in the saddle. Sovereignty will be reunited in the Derby with regular rider Junior Alvarado, who fell in a race on Thursday but escaped unscathed. Bill Mott, technically, won the 2019 Derby with Country House after the disqualification of Maximum Security, but something tells me there will be a special sense of accomplishment with a win this year. Sovereignty has another big plus in his favor – he dominated eight other 2-year-olds in the Grade 3 Street Sense at Churchill Downs!

Enter Sandman. No, not the Heavy Metal band Metallica’s hit (though they have sent plenty of band swag to the Mark Casse barn), but the $1.2 million dollar gray colt who was last seen rallying from far back in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby. I tagged him as a Derby horse after witnessing his long striding rally in the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes when he grabbed 2nd from Tritactic (a Kentucky Derby starter who went on to win the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby). Sandman put in another long striding late rally in his 3rd-place finish in the Grade 2 Rebel. The longer they go, the better he’ll get, but his sloth-like starts will provide a challenge for jockey Jose Ortiz.

The Blue Grass Stakes was the last major prep for the Derby and the top two finishers were a nose apart at the wire. There are pros and cons to the race. Critics point to an average finishing time in the 1 1/8 mile test and the fact that recent Derby winners have chosen other paths to the Run for the Roses. But as the song lyrics go, “It ain’t what you do, it’s the way that you do it.” Winner Burnham Square was roughed up a tad early in the going and was last before unleashing a huge run around the turn with a stride that says he will relish another furlong. With his running style, Brian Hernandez Jr. will have to pull one of his “rabbit out of a hat” rides, like he did with last year’s winner Mystik Dan.

Were it not for a stumble at the start of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, East Avenue would have been the 2-year-old champion. His return to the races in 2025 went over like a fart in church, finishing 10th and 22 lengths behind in the Grade 2 Risen Star. Trainer Brendan Walsh put blinkers on in the Blue Grass and East Avenue went right to the front and stayed there until that last stride.

Trainer Bob Baffert...he's baaaaaack!

Longshot Savers. After the bets are made and you have a few loose dollars in your pocket, here are a few to consider that could cover some of the cost of your big ticket. American Promise (30-1) is a humongous son of Triple Crown winner Justify that looks like he could run all day. Most importantly, he is trained by 89-year-old Hall of Famer D. Wayne Lukas! Citizen Bull (20-1) was the 2024 Eclipse Award winner. The son of leading sire Into Mischief drew the dreaded inside post, but he’s trained by Bob Baffert, ‘nuff said. Luxor Café (15-1) ships in from Japan with oriental connections and an American pedigree. Japan’s Forever Young missed in a photo last Derby. This Kentucky-bred son of American Pharoah has been the odds-on favorite in every lifetime start, including his last three stakes wins. C’mon, 123,217,752 Japanese can’t be wrong!

OK – if you stuffed a wad of money in my hand and a gun to my head I’ll be keying in on Journalism/Sovereignty on top of Sandman, Burnham Square, East Avenue and Baeza. The longshots could be sprinkled in on Superfectas. Yes, there are others that have a shot – but that’s my story and I’m stickin’ to it.